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Prediction for CME (2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-05T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42425/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in real time to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-11-05T10:53Z. CME is also seen in GOES CCOR-1 as a halo with the bulk to the E. CME was missed by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real time due to a scheduled gap between downlink periods. The CME is most likely associated with a long-duration M7.4 class flare from AR 14274 (N24E47) that peaked at 2025-11-05T11:19Z. The flare and associated eruption can be seen across GOES SUVI wavelengths but is best visible in GOES SUVI 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T04:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T04:33Z (-6.17h, +6.17h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): -26.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 43.5

initial CME speed: 1326.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2025-11-05T13:33Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 17.17 hour(s)
Difference: 0.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2025-11-06T11:38Z

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